Shenali Waduge
The 2010 Sri Lankan Presidential Election turned out an anti-climax. All the pundits got it wrong & what was promised to be a hard-fought out election practically a photo-finish turned into a no contest with Mahinda Rajapakse creating history by becoming the first incumbent President to be re-elected to office with a resounding victory. What actually facilitated the choice for the people was the common alliance itself for it was easy for people to identify who they should not vote for so in a sense the candidature of Sarath Fonseka for Presidency was a blessing to Sri Lanka & even for Ranil Wickremasinghe & the future of the UNP.
It took 10,495,451 voters to decide the 6th President of Sri Lanka from 14,088,500 total registered voters. The incumbent President secured 6,015,934 votes (58%) & proved no-match to the nominee of the Grand Alliance who managed to secure only 4,173,185 far less than what the present Opposition Leader secured in the 2005 Presidential Election as a single party candidate – 4,706,366. The election itself provides many a lesson & first & foremost of which is a reminder to the former army commander that A general must not fight a battle out of resentment (Sun Tzu).
Eight months following the fall of the LTTE when Presidential elections were suddenly announced it was clear that the Opposition Leader had no chance against a heroic President. The West did not want to back Wickremasinghe & face another defeat. Anyone wanting to oppose Rajapakse for Presidency had to have similar credentials & be equally revered for his role in the war. That man was none other than the former army commander Sarath Fonseka.
Why was Fonseka chosen ” the other armed service heads did a commendable role as well. Obviously those fishing for the candidate to oppose Rajapakse already had a dossier on Fonseka & knew how to woo & entice him to join a campaign to ensure Rajapakse does not rule for a possible 8 years. The plan must have taken shape far earlier than we are made to believe for much of what came from Fonseka mouth while in service & what transpired towards the latter part of 2009 did not make sense. Allured as he was into leading a grand alliance it was obviously the deals struck with the campaign backers that led to Fonseka implicating the Govt, the Defense Secretary & even his soldiers with possible war crimes. However, the numbers that wondered why the former army commander chose to join a grand alliance that scoffed at his army, laughed at him, ridiculed that he was unsuited to even command the salvation army, garland the photo of the very journalist the main opposition accused him of killing & making a deal with the very party that is the mouthpiece of the LTTE were the very people who made up the 6,015,934 figure that voted to say they had no faith & trust in his leadership. This number could also have been from those who listened aghast to his speeches atop stages where he made unhidden reference to what he would do to those that were on the wrong side of his. The winning numbers could also have been from those who did not believe in any political party but was convinced that the country should not go into the hands of a man who was driven by vengeance & hatred & who belonged to a team of politicians with closet full of skeletons of their own. The grand total amassed by President Rajapakse was clearly absorbing not only UPFA votes, but UNP & possibly even JVP votes as well ” not necessarily Sinhala, Muslim or even Tamil votes. Therefore, President Rajapakse & the UPFA need to clearly understand that UPFA support base will only be tested at the forthcoming General Elections. This should certainly awaken MPs who must now be sweating at what is likely to happen to them!
Fonseka win in the North & East was a surprise to most of us. The North knowledge of Fonseka while in uniform was nothing for Fonseka to be garlanded with thus it was obviously the TNA alliance that won Tamil votes even in Jaffna where Government control prevailed from 1990s (Fonseka) victory areas mapped clearly the Eelaam that LTTE fought for). The desire of Tamils to be inclusive or remain exclusive again comes into question. Why does the Tamils whose children do not have to fear being kidnapped & turned into child soldiers, who can now start rebuilding their lives wish to side with a group that was the LTTE spokesmen & who continue to fight for a merger of the North & East & a separate administration for the Tamils? Are we missing something of what the Tamils exactly want? Are they in angst with the Government for destroying & annihilating the LTTE? When a President has gone the length to learn Tamil, speak in Tamil & declare that there shall be no minorities why do these people desire to not extend their gratitude or give him that chance? We can understand that the displaced are in no frame of mind to vote they may not know how to vote or even have the desire to vote & this provides good reason for the Government to take the negatives positively besides the improvement of infrastructure to the North is not meant for Tamils alone Madhu pilgrims will enjoy easy access to the North & so too will the pilgrims going to Nagadeepa so we can expect a healthy mix of all races eventually living & working in the North & this should certainly break the feeling that the North belongs to Tamils only. The education ministry must continue to encourage children of the South to learn Tamil & for children of the North to learn Sinhalese .this will be the perfect way to unite the two races & facilitate proper discourse.
The Presidential contest certainly proved a divider” it was as if the race was between Western influence over Eastern, western democracy over democracy that suited Sri Lanka, Urban voters against the Rural or rather the Colombo clan against the rest of Sri Lanka it ultimately ended up nullifying claims of minority groups thinking themselves as kingmakers in forcing Sinhala votes to divide. Overall, it also ended up with the real winner being Ranil Wickremasinghe who obviously was aware of the outcome of the election but backed Fonseka to prove he was not to be written off from being the leader of the Opposition party as well as reiterating his stake in the UNP. So if the west in their bid to force a regime change, punish Rajapakse for annihilating the LTTE decided to opt for Fonseka it was Wickremasinghe who played along for it was only he who was likely to reap the final results & Ranil Wickremasinghe must be a jubilant man today. A lesson for his party is that the need to draw away from being minority sensitive only & looking more towards strengthening ties with the Sinhala vote base for that is where the votes actually count.
The strength of the rural vote must have been a shock even for Mahinda Rajapakse. The Opposition Alliance did encourage all voters to come out & vote ” they did but they voted for the President when they began to realize that their vote mattered for a country that was likely to be at stake when it became increasingly clear that the common alliance was functioning to the dictates of foreign influence including a Britisher handling the Fonseka campaign.
President must match gratitude within action
The people have shown their gratitude handsomely & a thankful President needs to match that gratitude with gratitude not with speeches alone. We are well aware that the thousands that voted for the President have hardly any facilities” roads, schools, teachers, proper housing, water, electricity, healthcare, doctors to provide some of these basic essentials it does not take much & some of these could have been provided by compromising on some of the billboards, hoardings, media campaigns. Now it is time to pay back voters & ensure that MPs of these areas do not just do liptalk but get into action & step up development in these areas for general elections are round the corner & the people are unlikely to give the same mandate that they gave the President so UPFA ministers & the President need to be well aware of the status quo. The people of Sri Lanka are proud of their President but they are not at all happy with the Ministers & that is the simple truth.
Therefore, with very little time, it is essential that time allocated for campaigning is better assigned towards improving the facilities that these rural voters have been denied all these years it is these simple & easy endeavors that may provide a clue to winning votes for the General Election. Unless quick remedies are taken the UPFA may well forget about winning any majority in Parliament.
The election also provided many eye-openers. On the one hand we are told that Sri Lanka was the best tourist destination & listed as one of the upcoming economies as against what most Colombian clan often voice to be a country whose economy is in shambles with corruption rampant than ever before. What are we to make of these two assumptions? Obviously the Colombo elite were backing SF purely on their own greed for a stake for themselves in the new governance” it had nothing to do with what was best for the country. Most of these people were not at all concerned that western forces were in fact backing the Opposition Candidate & these forces were probably behind maneuvering the common alliance itself & even providing the monetary requirements for the promises made though it is questionable at what cost this would be to the country & its integrity. The obvious plan was to replicate what was done in Iran though such an attempt has proven futile but attempts to create disunity will continue requiring Sri Lankans to be alert at all times.
With the elections now over it is unfortunate that another election is round the corner. Sri Lanka is likely to face a year of increased financial burden as a result. Nevertheless, positively it will provide the means for the country to use the forthcoming months to positively move forward. The President must now uplift himself to the level of a Statesman ” he entered history by becoming the only Sri Lankan leader to be able to stand up against western influence & end a 30 year war. The numbers that voted for him were those that had lost much due to war, the others were those who understood what it was like to live in a country where LTTE prevailed in essence those that voted for President Rajapakse were people who wanted to move forward but people who remembered the past. Now President Rajapakse needs to put the country in order ” starting with his own party & ensuring that wrong doers are punished or at least made to mend their ways. If having identified the likes of Mangala, Hakeem, Thondamon, Sampanthan, M Ganeshan the voters do not want them to be included into any future government in other words though crossovers have become an ugly necessity proper legislation must be enforced to ensure that crossovers are not encouraged.
With the mandate given the country now looks forward to action & all the promises & programs outlined must be focused & forward looking. The President & team must always remember that the people came out in their thousands to shower him with a win that showed the world that the people backed him..those very people are now waiting for him to show his gratitude & the clock is ticking.