How far has India realistically played role of mediator other than acting out of self-interest, making the best for India out of relations with both US & Russia? In ordinary terms this would be referred to as double-dealing. If China & Turkey could come up with peace proposals why hasn’t India? Does India see bigger advantage for itself in this chaos? But India cannot afford to lose Russia as noticeably Russia & China are increasing engagement. Its inevitably a case of self-serving interest –India gaining from purchase of discounted Russian crude oil & controlling global energy prices. How long can India sustain its relations when nations begin to wonder whose side India is actually on!
While India & China’s stand on Russia in Ukraine is a case in point, what is Russia’s stand vis a vis India-China rivalry? What if Russia sides with China? What if Russia-China-Pakistan relations increase as we can see happening after the sudden ouster of PM Imran Khan immediately after his visit to Russia while Pakistani army chief went to US & assured unhindered continuance of IMF policies. Russia is also supporting Pakistan’s entry to BRICS which India will have mixed reactions to. Though all are made to believe tensions prevail between India & China, both have been cozing up and any animosity projected by western media is to fulfil Western interests only. Thus, everytime the Indian leader visits Russia or China, the Western capitals get flustered.
Yet, inspite of India’s friendship with Russia, India was recently accused of selling weapons to Ukraine which means Ukraine is using arms sent by India to fight Russian troops! Is Russia agreeable to such?
Similarly, India is also being questioned again on loyalty. India’s support for Palestine was a part of its foreign policy of 1974 becoming the first Non-Arab State to recognize PLO. However, it appears the situation has now changed. India was among the 1st to condemn Hamas ttack on Israel on 7 October 2023 & Modi even named Hamas as “terrorist” in his tweet. India even abstained from UNGA vote calling for an Israeli ceasefire but voted for resolution to release Israeli hostages in Gaza. It was Indian intel that informed Sri Lanka of a likely Islamic extremist attack on Israeli tourists in Arugam Bay.
On another front, the world’s oceans are now being ruled by hired pirates. The Houthis are making $180 a month by illegal safe-transit fees – a bribe shipping agents have to secure to cross the Red Sea as per UN Security Council intelligence. Yemen Houthis are aligned it seems to Al Qaeda, al-Shabaab, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Hezbollah & Hamas. It is also claimed that Houthi-controlled companies are importing oil & liquefield petroleum gas using false country of origin certificates even bypassing UN Verification & Inspection Mechanisms. Many shippers are rerouting away from Res Sea in view of Houthi threats though Red Sea is the shortest & most efficient trade route for ships passing from Asia to Europe. The longer routes taken means price increases. On 19 Nov, Houthi rebels hijacked an Israeli cargo ship to express solidarity with Palestine.US formed a “defensive coalition” to counter Houthi attacks with 20 nations joining as partners. Though India maintained a neutral stand on Israel-Palestine, Indian ship Pipavav was hijacked by Houthis & another was also attacked.
Lets now look at how India is acquiring strategic ports. In January 2022, Adani took over Israels Haifa port (Israels 2nd largest port) for $1.8billion with local partner Gadot Group with Adani holding two-thirds shares. India outbid China to secure the Port. Adani runs 13 sea terminals in India which manages 23% of India’s maritime trade. Haifa Port is important for it is at the crossroads for trade & commerce between Europe, Middle East & Asia, the port offers quick access to Israels major cities & industrial hubs, it is a crucial naval base for Israeli defense forces enabling warships & support vessels to dock & Haifa Port produces, distributes petroleum products. India will gain acces to Israeli technology & expertise to modernize India’s port infrastructure. India’s control of Haifa port will give India a strategic edge. Haifa Port is frequently used by US Sixth Fleet. The strategic & political importance of the Port can be further seen in India appointing Ron Malka, Israels former envoy to India as the Executive Chairman of the India-controlled Haifa Port Company. Does this diplomat have any knowledge in managing a Port & Special Economic Zone?
Haifa is not the only Port, India has invested in. Oman gave India access to its Duom Port in 2018 which gives access to the Indian Ocean & Arabian Sea. India also controls & operates Iran’s Chabahar Port since 2018, this is Iran’s only deep-sea port with direct access to the ocean. Adani teaming up with US to build Colombo West Port Terminal in 2021 together with John Keells whose lease on the SAGT is expiring in a few years. India also constructed the Sittwe Port in Myanmar in 2016 & provides a strategic connection to the north east relieving pressure off the Siliguru Corridor. India & Bangladesh signed agreement to promote transshipment in 2018 via the Chattogram & Mongla Ports to reduce distance between Kolkota & major cities in North East states. Another deal secured by Adani who has also proposed to set up 2 LPG terminals in the 2 ports to handle 1m tonnes of LPG.Be that as it may, Adani just cut 60% of Bangladesh’s electricity for non-payment of $800m. Adani Power supplies 1600 megawatt to Dhaka. Bangladesh is getting reduced supply even though it has commenced payment. This certainly questions giving foreign powers to supply electricity to another nation. We can recall the oil-for-food scandal wherein Natwar Singh used the 2001 Iraq invasion & his Iraq visit to secure deals for his relatives by misusing the animosity between two nations for own advantage.
Striking a balance to maintain cordial relations with nations is one thing but misusing the animosity between two nations for one’s own advantage is not what either friendly nations expect, unless they would do the same if they had been in India’s shoes. However, those studying the trajectory will do doubt have reservations of actual sincerity. Of course, the trajectory is aware of another shadow, the presence of China. India does not like Russia’s closeness to China, while US will be apprehensive of India’s closeness to either Russia & China. The links India is formulating separately with France & Israel are clues to India not depending solely on Russian partnership. Likewise, India is using QUAD to make bigger ties with Australia, Japan & even South Korea, all allies of US.
The ballgame has changed with the recent re-election of Donald Trump to the White House. It is most likely Trump will give bigger emphasis on re-securing American economy, a factor that virtually all Presidents except Trump paid interest to.
Be that as it may just days before Trump became President US slapped sanctions on 19 Indian companies & 2 individuals for supporting Russia. These are also signs of mounting difference between India & US. India will also be concerned about the US regime change in Bangladesh & appointment of a pro-US member backed by US trained youth. These are all signs of dangers lurking & likely to happen inside India as well. The diplomatic tie-ups has seen increasing youth engagement programs and local NGOs pumped with funds by US to do their bidding. These will be the footsoldiers for any future balkanization agendas and colored revolutions unless action is taken. The tool of social media is being used to completely erase traditional cultural heritage across Asia – all these have insidious agendas though presented as “freedoms” “human rights” and the usual terms dished out by western-backed agencies & their mouthpieces.
With de-dollarization programs rolled out, with BRICS proposing their own currency & creating its own development bank the future of the dollar, IMF & World Bank will be brought to the table. If the dollar hegemony ends, the US empire will collapse. Thus, the West will no doubt also be doing a balancing act with India. To collapse and empire, a new empire & allies need to rise, this is where emerging economies will be given more attention & the new development bank will play a key role. With India doing much to break China’s BRI project, India’s role in BRICS too will be questioned. However, the pulse is pushing India towards resetting relations with China & statements from various quarters in India will ring alarm bells in Wasthington. India’s stand vis a vis its ties with Iran & Israel is also now under the radar. India is again benefitting from all of the world rivalries. Then again the high-level visits between Australia-China, EU engagements with China & revival of China-Japan-South Korea talks will no doubt be worrying the Indians too. It all looks a Tom & Jerry situation!
No doubt policy makers in US, Russia & China will be watching India’s movements aware that India places its own interest first in dealing with any of their partners. This is no ingredient for solid ties, therefore all will be in agreement that the weaker India is, the greater chances that India cannot gain undue advantage over diplomatic rivalries that prevail. India is certainly walking a tight-rope. Having angered all of its neighboring nations with its Big Brother attitude & policies, India has no friends in the region. Many are blaming India for bringing the US monster to Asian shores as an Indo-Pacific partner & thus allowing US to penetrate its objective directly in South Asia. We can see this in the manner the US envoy to Sri Lanka is regularly visiting the Tamil minorities in the Central Province, Eastern & Northern Province far more than the Indian envoy. These trips are not without agendas helpful to India. Soon India will have to directly face the monster India brought to Asia as QUAD partner. US regime change in Bangladesh took even India unawares! What more surprises will US spring on India.
Who is worried about growin cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. China & Russia’s stand on Israel-Iran-Palestine & Ukraine & how India is manoevering itself within this tense terrain.
Who will checkmate whom & how reliable is India’s friendship is now on the table.
Shenali D Waduge