Dr Sudath Gunasekara. Secretary Prime Miniter Sirimavo Bandaranayaka and President Sri Lanka State Administrative Services Association (1991-1994)
I am making this statement as the first and the only person who predicted that Gotabhaya will poll over 6.9 million + at the 2019 Presidential Election.
This was how I worded it in my personal email to him. Two days before the election day. I said “Gota your victory is a forgone conclusion. You should not have any doubts about it. You should also not get surprised even if you get 7 million” But this man did not have even the courtesy to thank me. That was Gotabaya Rajapaksha.
That observation was not based on any field survey using statistical methodology. It was purely based on my personal observation based on the polling of the previous Local Government elections they had just before the Presidential elections and my common sense formed after talking to a cross section of voters representing different social strata.
This time too, I am using the same methodology to forecast the outcome of the Presidential Election. But of cause, I must apologize to my readers this time that I can’t be so specific in my conclusions as the intricacies and complications in the electorate are so confused and the electoral behavior is so unpredictable as the majority, nearly 40% are said to be undecided till the last moment.
However, I would like to give my readers the following picture of the election results as I see it.
1.The contest for the first place is between Sajith and Anura. Sajith has a solid UNP block vote supported by the 50 odd S. J. B. V. , in spite of people like Thalatha leaving at the last moment The next + point is the Ranasingha Premadasa factor which is still prevailing among a substantial section of the not so privileged class, who form the majority in our society, who have benefitted under his regime. A third factor is the TNA support and the upcountry plantation sector led by the less sophisticated more Sri Lankanized, Digambaran and his cohorts, unlike the arrogant and Indianized young Thondamanan (who does not speak a single Sinhala word and behaves like an Indian mogul completely forgetting the fact that he was only a grandson of Samyamurthi Thondaman another south Indian slave labourer who came with his father as an 11 year boy in 1924 and who amazed enormous wealth on the sweat of poor labourers as a trade union leader a). I also see a fourth factor in the Muslim support lead by Badurdheen and Rauf Hakeem. Assuming that a majority of traditional UNP voters will prefer him to Ranil, I think he has better chance to garner the UNP electorate than Ranil.
2.Anura’s rise from the ashes seems to be remarkable. He will definitely get a majority of the new votes mainly because they don’t know the darker side of JVP of 1971 and 1989. But it is very unlikely that those who know the JVP pasts will ever vote him. Also, repeated public utterances made by characters like Laal Kantha and their public appearances still haunt the minds of the average village voter of their past. lack of consistency between what they have in their hand outs and contradictory statements made by the leader and some top notch like Harini Amarasuriya and their stand on the place of Buddhism and culture, their silence on the 13th A and Provincial Councils and the lack of clarity on subjects like Sri Lanka the nationality, ignorance of the identity of our past and the apparent silence on many public aspirations make his stand weaker. Though they have put on a new garb as the Jaathika Janathaa Party, that has definitely made some people blind. still the term JVP and the terror they committed haunts the minds of the majority public.
In this backdrop the contest for the first place is definitely between these two. Nevertheless, on the overall I thin. Sajith will have an edge and he will come first at the end.
Now let us see who will come 3rd and 4th
Going by the analysis of the ground situation, the contest for these two places is definitely between Ranil and Namal.
Namal in the public eye is no leader. The Gotabhaya tragedy and the betrayal he committed definitely stand on his way. But Mahinda Rajapaksha factor is still alive in the public eye and mind. Although well-organized anti Rajapaksha campaign dethroned Mahinda, his unique achievements like the War victory, (Which all his predecessors failed to do) the completion of the all-Island carpeted road network, construction of the superhighways, Hambanthota Port and the Airport, the Uma Oya Project, the Lotus Tower and the Port City in Colombo still blazes the minds and the hearts of the grateful people as his achievements. This perhaps is the strongest factor that pushes Namal up the ladder.
Therefore, when one weighs the pros and cons of the Rajapaksha regime, that is still living in the minds of the rural masses, the Mahinda Rajapaksha factor some times can fix him up in the 3rd place in spite of Namal’s immaturity and weaknesses.
Ranil the incumbent President on the other hand has many advantages over Namal the baby politician. His maturity, the advantages of being the current President, appeal to the Colombian elite professionals, international image, political experience and his pleasant disposition, the unreserved support from the defiant SLPP politicians (depending on how the voters will look at their betrayal of the SLPP as an offshoot of the SLFP, the traditional opposition of the UNP). He too has plus point. But the general mistrust the people of the country have had on his past pro-Western biases and his neoliberal economic policies inherited from his uncle JR are all are
negative factors that push him down. The fact that he had been rejected by the UNP as it’s leader from 2005- until 2022 is a strong point in his disfavor. Hi ascendency to power suddenly in 2022 and his role in the CB scam in 2015 and 20are is still debated in political circles.
Nevertheless, the third slot, I keep mum. But in any case, when one of the becomes the third the other automatically will become the 4th in this marathon. Thereafter obviously the other front runner, Dilith will end up as the 5th closing the door for all other 33 candidates forfeiting their deposits and thereby entering the, also ran list, making history in Sri Lanka politics.
One last point I would like to mention here. Going by the general dissatisfaction and frustration prevailing on Sri Lanka politics, firstly, this election will go down in history as the election which recorded the lowest percentage of polling. I am expecting around 13,500,000 to14,000.000. people to turn up at the polling booths, Secondly, it will also go down in history as the election with the largest number of candidates will forfeit their deposits. Fourthly none will get the 50%+ required to win in the first round. Assuming that if 14.000.000 cast their vote, one has to get 7 million at least to get the 50%. Even if gets al that 5,564,239 in 2019 it is very unlikely that he will get 7,000 000 this time. The situation gets even more complicated when you see that he has got only 2,771,984 at the 2020 General election. That is 2,793, 255 less than what he polled in 2019. Even if he gets the 5,564,239, he polled in2019, he has to get another 1.500.000 get the 50%. A such it looks a miracle for him to get 7,000,000.
For Anura to hit this target it is still more the difficult as he has got only 445,958 in 2020 and418,553 in 2019 So let us cross our fingers and wait to see what miracle is going to happen on the 21st of Sept 2024. under this situation.